CLIMATE FACTS & CALCULATIONS
The Climate Facts & Calculations below were put to the Australian government and the CSIRO in January 2012 and again in May 2012. They were unable to find any substantive error.
These Climate Facts & Calculations show that a mooted doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause an increase of around 0.6-degrees in global surface temperature, spread over a century.
The following climate facts are generally accepted within the climate science community, as being substantially correct.
1. A mooted doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere would have no effect on the amount of upward cooling thermal radiation that is emitted by the earth's surface.
2. A mooted doubling of CO2 would warm the earth's surface by transferring an additional 3.5 watts per square metre (3.5 W/sqm) of energy, in the form of downward warming thermal radiation, from the atmosphere to the surface, thus reducing net cooling upward thermal radiation.
3. For each 1-degree increase in temperature the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases by around 7%.
4. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas and a 7% increase in water vapour would warm the earth's surface by transferring an additional 1.6 W/sqm of energy, in the form of downward thermal radiation, from the atmosphere to the surface (positive water vapour feedback), thus reducing net upward cooling thermal radiation.
5. For each 1-degree increase in temperature, and excluding the positive water vapour feedback, the net upward cooling thermal radiation at the surface would increase by around 0.9 W/sqm.
6. A surface temperature increase of 1-degree would also cause minor changes in the amount of convective cooling of the earth's surface and the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the surface.
7. Currently the global water cycle cools the earth's surface by transferring 85 W/sqm of energy, in the form of latent heat of vapourisation (evaporative cooling), from the surface to the atmosphere.
Many independent teams of scientists, having analysed observational data, have reached conclusions substantially the same as Climate Fact No 8, below (see Observation Based Science):
8. For each 1-degree increase in surface temperature the amount of evaporative cooling increases by around 8% or 7 W/sqm (8% x 85).
The disproven proposition (since 2007 - Wentz et al.) that the water cycle slows down as the climate warms, and as a consequence evaporative cooling increases by only 4% or 3.4 W/sqm (4% x 85), for each 1-degree increase in surface temperature, is scientifically counter intuitive and unsubstantiated (see CSIRO Response - final paragraph).
For reasons best known to the CSIRO, it has over the last 5-years, continued to base its global warming predictions on the above disproven proposition.
Calculation of Surface Energy Balance for a Doubling of CO2
a. A mooted doubling of CO2 would warm the earth's surface by transferring an additional 3.5 W/sqm of energy from the atmosphere to the surface, in the form of downward warming thermal radiation.
b. Positive water vapour feedback is approximately linear for a small change in temperature, so a 0.6-degree increase in temperature would cause a 1 W/sqm (0.6° x 1.6) increase in downward warming thermal radiation at the surface.
c. A 0.6-degree increase in surface temperature would increase evaporative cooling by around 4 W/sqm (0.6° x 8% x 85).
d. Upward net thermal radiation that cools the earth's surface is approximately linear for a small change in temperature, so a 0.6-degree increase in temperature would cause a 0.5 W/sqm (0.6° x 0.9) increase in net upward cooling thermal radiation at the surface.
e. We see therefore that in response to a mooted doubling of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, a 0.6-degree increase in surface temperature would restore the energy balance at the earth's surface (3.5 + 1.0 = 4.0 + 0.5).
Typical global climate models increase virtual evaporative cooling by only 4% per 1-degree increase in surface temperature and so halve the increase in evaporative cooling.
As a consequence the computer models predict that following a mooted doubling of atmospheric CO2 the surface temperature would have to increase by much, much more than 0.6-degrees to restore the energy balance at the virtual planet's surface.