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GLOBAL WARMING - THE SCIENCE
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QUESTIONS NOT ANSWERED

 

In his letter of September 2012, Mr Cummings made the following request:

 

I would be grateful if Minister Combet could advise me as to whether the CSIRO has done some GCM simulations or other estimates for the case where the virtual E-P response is around 8% per degree and if so, what was the predicted increase in global temperature for a say doubling of virtual CO2.

The answer is 'around half a degree'; so Mr Cummings was disgusted but not surprised when he did not get an answer in Minister Combet's October reply.

Further Minister Combet's October reply makes it clear that the Australian Government and the CSIRO are not prepared to even confirm or deny that such a computer simulation or estimate has been made.

Having regard to the massive implications for climate change policy and the Australian economy, it is inconceivable that the Australian Government has not asked for and the CSIRO has not made an estimate or computer prediction of the increase in temperature for the case where evaporative cooling increases by around 8% per degree.

We are not dealing here with complex scientific analysis.  What we have is a bizarre reply from Minister Combet in which he acknowledges Mr Cummings' question, but then instructs his department to not give any answer.

In his November letter to The Hon Greg Combet MP, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and Minister for Industry and Innovation Mr Cummings repeated his request.

We are still waiting for Minister Combet to give an answer.

 

Previously current generation global climate models increased virtual evaporative cooling by only 4% for each 1 degree increase in virtual surface temperature.

 

The fact that the global climate models underestimate by a factor of two, the increase in evaporative cooling that occurs in the real world as the climate warms, has been reported in prestigious scientific journals many times over the five years since early 2007.

 

It can be easily determined (see Climate Facts & Calculations) that the global climate models, once reconfigured, will predict an increase in surface temperature of considerably less than 1 degree for a mooted doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

 

Nonetheless, the CSIRO and successive Australian governments are entitled, if that is their wish, to maintain their view that man made emissions of carbon dioxide might cause potentially dangerous global warming and carbon dioxide should therefore be treated as a dangerous pollutant.

 

However, when making claims to Parliament and the Australian public that carbon dioxide is a dangerous pollutant, the CSIRO and successive Labor governments were and are obliged to include the following caveats:

 

·       Caveat 1:- Around 80% of predicted global warming is attributable to a scientifically counter intuitive and unsubstantiated proposition.

This proposition holds that, as the climate warms and more energy is fed in, the global water cycle slows down, its period gets longer and evaporative cooling increases by only 4% for each 1-degree increase in surface temperature.

 

·       Caveat 2:- The CSIRO is unable to give a reference to a credible, published research paper in which the authors analyse observational data that shows the global water cycle does slow down as the climate warms.

 

·       Caveat 3:- There is considerable evidence that as the climate warms and more energy is fed in the global water cycle accelerates and evaporative cooling increases by 7% or more for each 1 degree increase in surface temperature.

 

 

 

In his letter of January 2012 Mr Cummings asked the following questions:

 

Are the statements made by the referenced authoritative scientific organisations and labelled 'A' to 'E' in the letter correct and if not what is the correction?


The referenced authorities stated that predictions of potentially dangerous global warming are based on virtual data manufactured by global climate models.  They also confirmed that this virtual data is unreliable, because the global climate models slow down the virtual global water cycle and so halve the increase in virtual evaporative cooling as the climate warms.

 

Are the climate facts in the letter correct and if not what is the correct estimate? (see Climate Facts & Calculations).

 

Are the climate calculations in the letter correct and if not what is the correct calculation? (see Climate Facts & Calculations).

 

(See also attachment to letter of January 2012)

The climate facts and calculations show that only 20% of the global warming predicted by the IPCC and the CSIRO is attributable to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. 

 

The remaining 80% of predicted global warming is attributable to the fact that the global climate models underestimate by a factor of two the increase in virtual evaporative cooling, as the climate warms.

 

To date the Australian government has refused to provide answers for the above questions.

 

 

In his letter of June 2011, Mr Cummings asked the following questions:

 

When replicating the earth's recent climate history, for the 'base case' scenario, by how much did the CSIRO's global climate model slow down the virtual water cycle and so underestimate the increase in virtual evaporative cooling, compared to the increase that occurred in the real world?

 

When projecting the earth's future climate, for the 'base case' scenario, by how much did the CSIRO's global climate model slow down the virtual water cycle and so underestimate the increase in virtual evaporative cooling, compared to the increase that would occur in the real world, as the climate warms?



To date the Australian government has refused to provide answers for the above questions.

 

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